Evaluating My (Possibly) Insane Choice to Pick Up Harold Ramirez Instead of Josh Lowe
Like many Rays players, Harold Ramirez could be heading towards a true fantasy breakout season.
Josh Lowe has been on an incredible tear to start the season, just like rest of the Tampa Bay Rays offense.
In my 15-team league, both Lowe and Harold Ramirez were available on the waiver wire a few weeks ago, leaving me in quite the predicament over who to go after. Obviously both is the right answer, but with the way my team was constructed at the time, I was really only comfortable picking up one guy.
I chose Ramirez.
It might sound insane on the surface - and it could very well end up being a crazy move over time - but here’s why I went this route.
Ramirez has begun to develop a reliable track record that often goes underappreciated in fantasy circles. The 28-year-old has a career 105 OPS+ but he put up a 118 OPS+ with the Rays last season, slashing .300/.343/.404 with six home runs, 58 RBI, and 24 doubles in 435 plate appearances. There hasn’t been much power to speak of, but Ramirez makes contact and keeps the strikeouts to a minimum.
This year, though, the power is there.
Ramirez has five home runs already, and he’s hitting a robust .371/.435/.710 with an AL-leading 1.144 OPS and 222 OPS+. Those are gaudy numbers, but the underlying statistics suggest Ramirez is truly earning it this year, evidenced by a .318 xBA, improved barrel rate (7.8%, the highest of his career), and a better launch angle, which currently sits at 13 degrees. Oh yeah, and he’s walking more while striking out less.
So I guess it’s not that crazy that I picked him up instead of Lowe.
But the 25-year-old Lowe is having his own incredible year, which was a bit more unexpected given his rough first go of the majors, in which the former first-round pick hit .221/.284/.343 with two home runs and 66 strikeouts in 198 plate appearances.
So here’s why I went with Ramirez:
Lowe had a career 31% strikeout rate in the minors, and he struck out 33% of the time with the Rays last season. He’s lowered that number to 17% in 2023, but I have a hard time believing it’s going to stay there.
Lowe currently has an xBA of .269, which suggests he’s due for at least some regression eventually; nobody expects him to hit over .300 forever. Still, though, it’s hard not to wonder if Lowe is finally tapping into that first-round potential…
Is the power real? Maybe, but right now, that’s not necessarily a deciding factor between him and Ramirez. Something got into both Ramirez and Yandy Diaz this offseason because they’re both lifting the ball more, which could turn them both into true breakout stars this season. And among the three mentioned here, Diaz and Ramirez just don’t strike out.
Playing time is getting crowded for Tampa Bay, with essentially everyone in the lineup tearing the cover off the ball. You’d think Ramirez and Lowe would be in some sort of platoon, which figured to be the case going into the season, but both are getting regular playing time. There’s just no way Tampa Bay wants to take either of these guys out of the lineup for the time being.
Both are producing at an incredible clip, and right now, you kind of can’t go wrong with either one if one or both of them are still miraculously on the waiver wire. But in the long run, Ramirez might be the best bet over the course of the whole season.